On June 24, 1947, near Washington’s Mount Rainier, private pilot Kenneth Arnold saw nine shiny, saucer-like objects flying in a long chain at 1,200 mph, far faster than any known aircraft of the day. The ensuing media frenzy and many reported sightings in subsequent weeks—including the Roswell Incident in July—kicked off our collective captivation with Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs). Seventy-eight years later, enthusiasts around the world will celebrate July 2 as World UFO Day.

What was once the purview of conspiracy theorists has now entered the mainstream. Advances in sensor technology and personal aircraft use have caused an upswing in reports of what are now called Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP). The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) considers the uptick a potential threat to national security, not from other planets, but from adversarial actors here on Earth.

@theU spoke with Richard Medina and Simon Brewer of the University of Utah’s School of Environment, Society & Sustainability about their research that helps make sense of the technology filling our skies. In a study last year, they found that the Western U.S. is the best region to spot UAP due to our dark skies, open spaces and proximity to military installations. This World UFO Day, keep one eye on the sky.

Why is the U.S. Department of Defense so interested in UAP?

Simon Brewer: It boils down to the possibility that other countries, or actors, have technology that is not well understood and potentially poses a threat. The Chinese weather balloon story a couple of years ago illustrated that there could be a range of threats, from surveillance to something more aggressive.

Richard Medina: A lot of this is about uncertainty. We have UAP sightings that appear to break the laws of physics or emerge from the ocean. But we also have really low-tech stuff—China is sending balloons over. Anyone can do that. We’re concerned about anything that surprises us—either it’s so low-tech or so high-tech that we didn’t expect it.

How can you tell what’s worth paying attention to?

Brewer: What we have are open-source, public reports, so they’re hard to verify, but you can usually put them into three categories. There are going to be hoaxes or pranks. There will be people who genuinely see something that could be easily explained, but for whatever reason—it’s too cloudy or too far away—they can’t explain it. And then there’s a smaller category, which is where the real national interest is, where it’s something that appears foreign, or technology that we may have no knowledge of yet. A big part of our research is trying to parse that out.

I noticed you didn’t list ‘aliens’ as a possibility in your list.

Medina: People in our government don’t seem to mention aliens, but if there are aliens visiting, that’s a concern. No doubt about it. If China has this tech, that’s a concern. There’s also the question of conspiratorial thinking—that’s also a national security issue. If nobody trusts the government and they think we’re hiding UAP in a warehouse somewhere, that’s a national security issue. From a security standpoint, uncertainty is dangerous.

How did you get involved in this research area?

Brewer: I was looking for something fun to use in class as a dataset. We’re both of the “X-Files” generation and find it really interesting. So, I started using the National UFO Research Center reporting data. You partly expect that public-source data with a fantastical air to it would be random. But we found these really, really strong spatial patterns. The difference in sightings between the western and eastern regions of the U.S. was incredibly marked. It seemed like a fun thing to do, but there is another part of it—this has been a big cultural phenomenon for a long time. There’s an increased awareness of security issues, and yet there are very, very, very few scientific approaches to it. We thought, why not take the same approach you would with any societal environmental problem and look at it through that lens?

What research are you working on now?

Medina: We’re looking at sighting trends over time. We have the pre-drone, pre-technology times, and then we have the post. Everybody’s got a drone, we now have Starlink satellites up there, and you would expect a general increase in sightings. But we get these weird patterns where sightings seem to rise and fall at random. What would cause fewer sightings when there’s more technology in the sky than ever before? So, we’re looking at other societal trends—what’s going on politically, economically or culturally that might drive the variation of UAP reports? We’re looking at things like rocket launches, space-themed films and TV shows, congressional hearings and even the number of antigovernment groups.

What is your favorite UFO-related media?

Brewer: I would always go back to the “X-Files” because it was just this mix of all of these things, the conspiracies, the monsters, the extraterrestrials, and all wrapped up in that. It’s just an amazing piece of work, right? I also like “The Expanse” books and TV series.

Medina: The “X-Files” was really good, but I have really been enjoying “Resident Alien” these days. Last season, they were interviewing people who had real experiences with things they couldn’t explain, and I thought that was a neat thing to work into their story. And I’ve always been a Trekkie too. How can you not be? “Star Trek” is amazing.

• Lisa Potter Research communications specialist, University of Utah Communications
  949-533-7899 lisa.potter@utah.edu