Projected declines in Utah’s 18- to 24-year-old population prompt action from Utah’s higher education leadership. Demographic shifts have begun to reshape the age structure of the state’s population, bringing a larger share of older residents, smaller shares of children and young adults and significant implications for Utah’s economy, workforce and public institutions. A new research series from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute examines the far-reaching consequences of these shifts. The newest brief in the series released today focuses on higher education and examines how a shrinking college-age population could affect Utah’s colleges and universities while also identifying options to strengthen future opportunities.
“Utah’s demographic landscape is changing,” said Heidi Prior, senior public policy analyst at the Gardner Institute and lead author of the brief. “The approaching decline in college-age residents reflects a broader shift in Utah’s age structure, with important implications for higher education.”
“Understanding the timing and scale of these changes gives policymakers and institutional leaders time to prepare and think strategically about the future of higher education,” added Andrea Brandley, senior education analyst. “Approaching this transition as a statewide system—not simply institution by institution—can help Utah expand educational opportunity, improve student success and better meet evolving workforce needs.”
Key findings from the research include the following:
Utah’s college-age population will decline for nearly two decades: Utah’s population ages 18 to 24 is projected to peak around 2028 before declining by roughly 85,000 residents, or 17.9%, through 2047. The latest projections show the decline beginning somewhat earlier and lasting longer than previously projected, with 28 of Utah’s 29 counties expected to experience a decline.
Enrollment challenges extend beyond demographic change: Utah’s college-going rate remains well below its historical high, while public confidence in the value and direction of higher education presents an additional challenge. If these trends continue, they could further constrain enrollment beyond the effects of population decline.
Impacts will vary across institutions: Colleges and universities serving larger shares of traditional-age students may face greater enrollment exposure, while differences in funding structures, institutional missions and student populations will shape the financial effects.
Improved retention can strengthen enrollment: USHE institutions retained 68.7% of first-year students between 2023 and 2024, with about 7,000 full- and part-time students from the entering cohort not returning to their institution the following fall. Even incremental improvements in retention could keep hundreds or thousands of additional students enrolled each year.
Learners age 25 and older represent a growing opportunity: Utah’s population age 25 and older is projected to grow even as the traditional college-age population declines. More than one-third of working-age Utahns do not hold a postsecondary credential, and changing workforce needs may increase demand for reskilling and upskilling among those who already hold credentials.
Utah has begun preparing for the transition: Recent legislative and higher education initiatives emphasize long-term planning, strategic resource allocation, institutional collaboration, student completion and better alignment between educational programs and workforce needs.