The University of Utah Wilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy has released a new demonstration tool to provide advanced warnings for unhealthy air events from wildfire smoke.

The new physics-based tool, with machine learning and predictive analytics-based augmentation, demonstrates air quality forecasting capabilities that Trace Air Quality (Trace AQ), a U startup, has developed to meet the growing threat of wildfire smoke and pollution events.

The tool depicts a smoke forecast map generated in part using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, which is the EPA’s open-source air quality modeling system, to simulate fire activity and the movement of wildfire smoke particulate matter across various scales. While the free version of the smoke tool generates forecasts out to one day, the subscription Trace AQ model can forecast out to four days in advance, available at TraceAQ.com.

“The Trace AQ smoke and air quality forecast is the product of nearly ten years of research and development at the University of Utah,” said Taylor (Kai) Wilmot, postdoctoral research associate in the U’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences and CTO at Trace AQ. “Insight developed through research into wildfire plume rise, wildfire emissions, fire-atmosphere interactions, atmospheric transport of smoke, and atmospheric chemistry informs the current iteration of the forecast, with further development on the horizon. We view this as the beginning of these efforts and aim to extend the body of knowledge driving this model.”

The model is supported by the Wilkes Center, National Science Foundation CIVIC Innovation Program, and the U’s Center for High Performance Computing.

Department of Atmospheric Sciences researchers Derek Mallia and Kai Wilmot, and Heather Holmes in the Department of Chemical Engineering developed the core technology over years of federally funded research at the U. They then partnered with Victor Gill, a tech executive with experience bringing cutting-edge digital technologies to market, for support with commercialization.

“As someone who was born and raised in Utah, I know how air quality can deeply impact our lives and communities,” said Gill, Trace AQ CEO. “Our forecasting technology allows organizations to be proactive rather than reactive to air quality. From schools planning for indoor recesses when needed to athletic departments adjusting training times and employers keeping outdoor workers safe.”

Trace AQ recently launched with $1.25 million in seed funding, and aims to provide valuable predictive insights for schools, athletic event organizers, businesses, healthcare providers, and sensitive groups with advanced forecasting about where and when wildfire smoke may likely occur.

“The smoke forecasting tool is a terrific example of the way the Wilkes Center seeks to deliver cutting edge science in the hands of the public,” said John Lin, scientific director of the Wilkes Center. “The tool illustrates how researchers at the University of Utah can provide important climate information to improve the lives of Americans, through innovation and private partnerships.”

Trace AQ’s $1.25 million seed round was led by Rusheen Capital Management (Santa Monica, CA), and joined by Thin Line Capital (Pasadena, CA) and Curt Doman, a Utah entrepreneur and early-stage investor. The university’s Technology Licensing Office (TLO) supported the commercialization efforts by spinning out the technology and brokering the licensing deal.

Anyone can explore the Wildfire Smoke Forecast Tool on the Wilkes Center’s website, or in person at the Wilkes Center. More information about Trace AQ’s enterprise-grade air quality forecasting systems can be found here.

Banner photo: The sun sets through smoke from Utah’s Monroe Canyon fire covering Salt Lake City, Aug. 4, 2025. Photo credit: Brian Maffly.

• Ross Chambless Community Engagement Manager, Wilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy
  (801) 646-6067 ross.chambless@utah.edu